Back on Feb 4th, Markos caused a minor stir when he said this:
...Hillary's best hope at this point appears to ride out the clock. For Obama, his task for Tuesday is simply to survive. He needs to finish within 200 delegates of Clinton to keep it close...
Now, if you can remember a billion years ago before Super Tuesday, this statement caused something of a tussle. The hardcore Obama supporters felt it was unfair, demanding too much of a candidate with no name recognition. The hardcore Clinton backers said it was unrealistic, claiming that a simple Clinton victory on Super Tuesday would seal Obama's fate and should rightfully end his campaign.
No matter where you fell back then or align yourself now, there's something we all have to admit:
Markos kicks ass.
After rereading his Super Tuesday analysis, I was reminded why I love this site. With the pundits and pols and talking heads and endless, 24-hours-a-day, blowhard, useless blabbering on cable and radio, we still have a place where we can get an honest, thoughtful, and dang accurate reading of American politics.
Obama didn't just come within 200 delegates to "keep it close", he won the day by 6 states and 13 delegates.
...the rest of [February] is tailor made for Obama... only Maine might prove kind to Hillary... The rest -- 563 delegates' worth of contests, will favor Obama heavily.
So Hillary's task is to defeat Obama decisively on Tuesday. If she can't manage that, then her plan B is to survive February to fight in March.
As we all know, Obama didn't just win in February, he dominated. The closest Clinton could manage was the blowout in Wisconsin where she lost by 17 points (The Maine caucuses went to Obama by 20%). Every single contest was a landslide. Obama won five of them by more than 30% and two by more than 50%. Clinton sat through eleven contests without a win, her Super Delegate endorsements dried up, and her team tried their best to spin anything at all into a positive and focusing everything else on "Super Tuesday II." If any other candidate had been blown out that bad after losing on Super Tuesday, they would have dropped out.
But she "survived." In fact, I would argue that the only reason she "survived" was because of a fairly substantial gift in the form of Jeremiah Wright. Suddenly, the Clinton political juggernaut was in full swing.
By this time, McCain was the presumptive nominee, so Obama was facing attacks on two fronts.
On Tuesday the 4th, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont go to the polls. Vermont appears the most competitive right now, though that will change with a couple of weeks to campaign in these states. Winning Ohio, in particular will be important for propaganda purposes.
And again, Markos nailed it. Vermont was another 20% win by Obama, he beat expectatons by winning the delegate count in Texas, and Rhode Island was an unsurprising Clinton victory. But Ohio went to Clinton by 10%. Regardless of the January/February polling that put her up by more that 20% in the state, the win has become part of the now tired argument that only Hillary can win "big states."
Tiny Wyoming will go on Saturday March 8, with its 18 delegates perhaps actually mattering. Mississippi, with its 40 delegates, should be Obama territory on the 11th.
Nailed it. Two more landslides.
Then...
Absolutely nothing for six weeks until Pennsylvania on April 22. Shit. Atrios and Booman may actually have a say this primary. How scary is that? And those 188 delegates will loom large. In fact, this is the only contest of significance (not including Guam) for an entire two months. It'll be huge.
Huge seems like an understatement now, doesn't it? Obama was bombarded with negativity. News cycle after news cycle went to Clinton. Her team played every single advantage, no matter how minor. It didn't matter if it came from Fox and Friends or Saturday Night Live. The pinnacle of the negative clusterf**k was the embarrassing "debate" hosted by ABC. Beyond being patently ridiculous, it didn't even resemble journalism.
After that, another two weeks pass until Tuesday May 6, when 218 delegates are at stake in Indiana and North Carolina... A week later, 39 delegates will be decided in West Virginia, a week after that on the 20th, Kentucky and Oregon, and that closes out May. Given the demographics of NC (heavily African American, lots of creative class thanks to the Research Triangle), that'll be Obama territory.
And here we are today. So far, Markos' "out-of-my-ass" predictions for the primary have been spot on. We've suffered through a blistering primary, a "strike" by our Clinton-leaning friends over at MyDD (who we still love), and cable news programming that looks more like the Weekly World News than even a high school newspaper. But through all of it, Obama has met and exceeded every expectation.
And the rest of the race?
Oregon Democrats are heavily "creative class", so lean that one toward Obama. Beats me about West Virginia and Kentucky, though West Virginia was competitive for Obama the last time it was polled in April of 2007, back when he wasn't competitive anywhere (he trailed 37-22, with Edwards getting 19), so that bodes well. Meanwhile, Kentucky has never been polled for the presidential contest, so who knows.
So what's left? Two weeks later, on June 3, Montana and South Dakota select 47 total delegates, and then that Saturday, Puerto Rico closes things out with its 63 delegates up for grabs.
So how will this shake out? Beats me. But task one is for Obama to survive this Tuesday. If he does, task two is for Hillary to survive this month. If she does, then they both have to survive the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th. If they do, this thing goes to Pennsylvania. Or to North Carolina.
Or to the convention.
Spot. On.
Why is DailyKos my first stop every morning? Because it's one of the few places left with a proven record of excellence.
Thank you, Markos. And thank you to the DailyKos community. I love you guys.
UPDATE icebergslim is a freak'n genius. His brilliant diary outlines EXACTLY why we rock.
We know better. Of course we know better. We aren't cable news desk jockeys looking for ratings. We aren't blindly following the lead of some blowhard with a radio show. How could Markos have predicted the race so perfectly? Because we aren't concerned with what sells advertising, we're looking at the whole picture.
This race is over today. They will go on talking about it, they will look for ways to keep the race going, they will even pull out some pretty ridiculous "scandals" to sell a few 30 second spots on Glen Beck (how does that guy have a show?). But we know (and we have known since February), we have a nominee.
Democrats in '08! (Hallelujah!)
(please go tip and recommend icebergslim)